Anonymous said...
salamu alikum brother Younus Abdullah Muhammed
i hope you are well and in good iman and health iA. Ahki i was analysing the recent Nato summit in Portugal Lisbon where the infidels where discussing their exit strategy from Afghanistan. They announced that they will begin a process of transition next year and withdrew completely by 2014. The kuffar have also estimated that it is going to cost them another 420 billion dollars to stay there for another four years. With the current economic crises in America and I think the national debt is currently 14 trillion and counting. do you think this war expenditure of half a trillion US tax dollers will be the final nail in the coffin for the US empire to collapse. Also, ahki, i read in Ibn Kathirs the book on signs before day of judgement ( Al Bidyah wan Nihyah) that a group will rise from east the land of Khurasan with black banners and they will conquer every land until they will reach Jeruselam. I spoke to one brother about this hadith and I told him that it could be the Taliban because Afghanistan is khurasan and their flag is the black flag of Islam. He told me the hadith is quick. However, there are other hadith which support this one to make it authentic. ahki do you think after the disbelivers leave afghanistan the mujahideen will march on to Jeruselam. Also, i wanted to ask you if you still give street dawah out side mosques every friday after jummah salah becuase i thought it was good way of conveying once message. Also, ahki can you please recommend any usefull books i can read that can help me in understanding of current affairs.
Jazak Allah Khair brother and may Allah keep you steadfast upon his deen and the haq.
your brother in Islam
Abu Qital
Thank you for your questioning. I am not qualified to give the grading of any particular hadith. However, there are numerous opinions on the issue of who the ahadith of the army from Khurasan refer to. There are numerous narrations and the majority of studies I have read do not grade any of the hadith as saheeh. However, a ph.d dissertation from Saudi Arabia that studied them in detail did a good job to document the reliability of them all, so I believe we can consider the reports due to frequency of narration as reliable and I do not think you will find that view as controversial.
That being said, it is not so much the reliability of a particular narration but the politics that tends to come into play via its interpretation that creates controversy. For those enemies of the mujahideen, then the Army from Khurasan was fullfilled when the people of Khurasan, oppressed by the Ummayads, came out to help the Abbasids rise to power. Thus they say it was already fulfilled and try to equate those that think otherwise to wild-eyed conspiracy theorists. The fact that Ibn Kathir quotes these narrations in Bidaayah wa Nihaayah as part of the final signs documents that most of the ummah throughout history interpreted these hadith as something that was to come in the future.
Those supportive of the mujihaddin and from ahlhus sunnah do in fact see many of the signs of the army in the Islamic Emirate's movement. Whether they be Ashari, Maturidi, Sufi, or Athari, it seems they all can find a way to categorize the Taliban as ascribing membership to their sect and thus claim the truth... As Muslims we should recognize the dimensions of the Taliban movement, how its origins are in Deobandism, many of its learned were educated in Saudi masjids built during the jihad with Russia, how not all graduates of Deobandi institutions retain the Maturidi aqeedah, how its broad cultural inclusion of mujahideen from everywhere inserted the aqeedah and manhaj of the taifa mansurrah (victorious sect), its honor and izza for Islam allowed alterations in ideology and practice to occur and the learning curve that has been produced religiously and secularly (military, political) is phenomenal to the point where the Taliban now know international affairs very well, have craftily hidden identities, have a platform for rule with initial policy formation for how to deal with a very real and complicated existential threat and etcetera. The contemplative one should reflect on this development, study the history of this (what I call jihadi-globalization) and see in it the variables that do indeed suggest they may be that army. Many lessons are learned for how movements develop and advance and the difference between an idealistic ideological critique versus events in the real world, where mistakes sometimes become the greatest opportunities to learn and advance.
It is important to note, however, that talk of the Army from Khurasan only comes from those away from them. As the Mahdi (AS) will not recognize that he is indeed the Mahdi, so too the nature of truth is that it remains humble and self critical. Too many people rely on prophecy and then live in the future by interpreting today in ways that are always looking for signs about the End of Times. Thus End of Timers in any religion tend to get obsessed with prophecy and leave off the rest of the religion or the shaytan is able to get them to avoid doing deeds of greater value because of an intellectual obsession that doesn’t deal well with practical things that serve a real world purpose in the now... this is a phenomena I have noticed a lot from amongst those whose political ideologies are largely equivalent to the conspiracy theorist view that has an extremely large online following. I think it is important to study the signs, major and minor, and to be cognizant of the characteristics so that we can identify who to support, who not to support and so that we might be able to allow that knowledge to influence decisions we make about where we go, what we do, and who we associate with, but I do not think that we should become obsessed with it.
In regard to the Lisbon Treaty and its plan: It is a fact that they have discussed drawdown in 2014…. It is highly improbable however that Afghanistan’s army will be ready for complete takeover and so, as Obama said he would withdrawal from Iraq yet there remains 50,000 troops (classified as non-combat troops) there today, certainly not an insignificant presence, I think we should be weary to expect that there will be an absolute withdrawal especially as relations between Anglo-American countries and the East grow more distant.
It all depends really on the capitulation of India and China to US demands, but it is more and more apparent that China is unwilling to budge and so South East Asia becomes all the more important. In regards to the political nature of the conference, it is meant to show that NATO is still functioning, something that has been largely questioned especially by UK-US circles. Including Russia is to show that the Cold War is over but that NATO still has a useful function and the timetable and treaty makes it look like all is going according to plan. In actuality, Patreaus, as he has done in Iraq, has upped a widespread campaign of terror with night raids and massive aerial bombardments. Because there is a virtual blackout of press operating around these new operations in Kandahar, it will be a slaughter undocumented. But as you can see by the mainstream press they are reporting the death of 3,000 Taliban (any man with a turban) this month alone and it is obvious they are trying to terrorize the Islamic Emirate into political bargaining something they have been able to thus far resist based on their precondition that they will negotiate only once foreign forces leave. The US did the same thing in Vietnam and if you want my analysis please read from previous posts and article entitled “Obama’s Afghan Purge” available on this site.
The economics of war are important but are far too often misunderstood within Muslim circles; people that argue that militarism against the mujahideen alone is bankrupting the U.S. economy have a very short sighted view and lack adequate knowledge of the degree to which the American economy and its currency influence the world. While it is true that after 9-11, policies domestic American policy was effected so as to not show weakness within the domestic economy and to keep interest rates low to prop up a bubble we now know Greenspan knew would pop eventually, these political factors alone cannot explain the economic decline of the dollar bill.
So far, the U.S. has spent essentially 2 trillion dollars on the war and economists like Joseph Stiglitz have estimated that they will probably spend upwards of 4 trillion ( I believe he has actually increased that figure but am not sure)… However, just yesterday Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont revealed that the Federal Reserve has guaranteed 16 trillion of bad assets for global banks because Bloomberg News, after suing the Federal Reserve, gained access to records that show programs that have guaranteed these trillions to banks, many of them foreign, this suggests that the nation is certainly controlled by financial circles. In fact, it is absolute evidence that this is the case. Still, it does not mean the large debt is a problem as long as the dollar is the global reserve currency… a very accurate study by an Boston Univ. economist Paul Kotlikoff suggests that Congressional Budgetary items suggest US is actually over 200 trillion in debt.
With the initiation of Quantitative Easing 2 programs, which will release another trillion dollars into the economy, and the appreciation of the dollars as a consequence since, we see how the money spent on war to some degree has actually been the only stimulus that has worked as it has created profits for the military-industrial complex, kept tens of thousands of young, poor youth employed, stimulated demand by purchasers of US arms (namely India and Saudi Arabia lately) to purchase even more and effectively secured the petrodollar scheme by shifting Iraqi oil deals back into dollar denominated terms. So, not everything has been bleak for a country that can simply print money at will because all central banks hold dollars unredeemable in commodities and thus are held hostage by the order as it exists now. But the QE2 program is most definitely the last round of fire the Fed has (and they know it) and so these coming years represent the birth of a new economic order, for better or worse.
The true purpose of QE2 is however, not to destroy the dollar today, but to give speculators, hedge funds, international banks, and others cheap dollars with low-no interest rate so that they can invest in real assets across the globe (arbitrageurs). This gives large institutions and speculators another handout…. (see my interview on press tv about the bailout in 2008 on blip.tv). Well aware that Western consumers are tapped out and will never return to their once powerful demand levels created by the low interest rates and housing-equity bubble that sparked the fire in 2008, they are preparing for tangible asset grabs in developing economies of which western institutions already hold a large amount of the capital. The ultimate consequence for this could ultimately lead to American bankruptcy and destruction of the dollar in the long term, but in the event that the world leveled out and developing economies had increases in their own demand, with continuing decreasing quality of life in the West, what you would see is a world of enhanced neo-feudalism…. The states that challenge the US system, whether Iran, China, or Latin American nations are largely more oppressive against their domestic populations and so the ultimate consequence, because people are largely unaware this is going on, is a world where corporations and their financiers dominate nation states and governments serve only the elite interests across the world. Of course the state, in bed with them, will present a new state capitalism, but the true definition of fascism is a merger between the state and private power…. Thus we have been living through a financialized, imperialist world for 40 years but the dimensions of that are changing and it is now eating its own populations and gaining adherents across the board. It looks like for the first time fascism is set to conquer most of the world but this time it is friendly and operates a war machine deadlier than the Nazis but that claims peace via the rhetoric of “security” and “terrorism” that it comes in peace…
I hope this does not deaden your hope, but the objective analyst must separate his emotions from forecasts when speaking of the future and as I said before it is better to live in the now with a focus on what is happening and what the implications might be.
That is not to say that there has not been a degree of success with regard to the policy of bleeding the empire to death., but this only becomes possible if balance of power evens out across the world (as was aforementioned and as is happening) AND the US is defeated convincingly in Afghanistan with the redevelopment of a safe haven for Islamists across the globe…. The second condition is not a given and it is hard to imagine that becoming the case immediately, even after a US withdrawal.
The other benefit of the war of attrition the US is engaged in is that it has completely discredited their diplomatic influence and ruptured what is known as soft power. Now the US has officially embarked upon actual militaristic imperialism and anytime that happens, the empire is destroyed. While Peter Bergen made the case that 9-11 improved relations with Middle Eastern regimes (see Vanity Fair), it only did so at a cost to US claims of democratization being taken seriously… no longer can the US claim that it is in the Middle East to promote freedom and democracy, its intimate relationships with dictators and authoritarian regimes that squander the wealth of the ummah is now known allover and perhaps most importantly is something that other countries resent as they themselves seek business and influence in the region. So, the work of Islamists has become easier as a tremendous void has been created and Islamist political parties across the region are doing well as more people desire that Islam play a role in politics and social affairs.
While analysts like Peter Bergen imagine that Osama bin Laden desires some arcane version of salafist Islam and political power for Al Qaeda, nothing could be further from the truth. What Osama has always explicitly desired is a cultural renaissance where Muslims have an opportunity to wrest themselves from the oppressors the US keeps over them. This he has largely achieved, though the ummah unfortunately only partially realizes it.
The real work is to create support for a paradigm that is truly Islamic and that can liberate the Islamic world, one that calls to the religion but is primarily dedicated to universal principles that bring justice. In my opinion, when we speak of such endeavors we need to think generationally and certainly cannot expect widespread awareness at this stage. At this juncture it is important we understand the many dimensions of power and the influences over the Muslim world and that requires a group of intellectuals (probably at the state level initially) that adhere to something like the type of social scientific thought laid out in the philosophy of Islampolicy.com…. I think Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia, Afghanistan, Somalia, Yemen, Nigeria, Lebanon, and many other states already are heading in this direction via thinkers within them, but feel it is a story to be officially recognized 5 years from now. (see this article http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/12/02/hiding_in_plain_sight for a bit of the direction I think the ummah will head toward over that time).
Many would say that the members of Al Qaeda would only criticize these political movements…. and that is true, because unless they become more Islamic nothing will change… and so they sit, as the vanguard they see themselves as, that calls to jihad and waits for the ummah to respond to the opportunities they create in a level, non-unipolar world. Certainly the rise of Latin America and the ability of Iran to remain un-bombed and politically intact, is due to the mujahideen…. The rise of China has less to do with that, but China itself is the corporatists dream and that takes me to the last point I will to make in responding to your question.
The U.S. empire’s days are numbered because the days of the dollar are numbered, but that may not necessarily be a good thing collectively for the world either and this is what is not understood and tends to make those wanting the destruction of the US, allies of the corporations, financial institutions, and alternative systems that also greatly influence the world.
I say this to say that it is imperative that two things as a consequence of this awareness occur… 1) Muslims need to present Islam as a paradigmatic solution and 2) resistance based on modifying the present system or working within to attain power should be shunned as completely unrealistic and for what they really are as a means by which to attain personal benefit….
It is probable that in Afghanistan the US will be defeated. It is highly improbable that this defeat would create any coherent spread of alternative ideology immediately. Therefore, even if one must crawl through ice, it would become incumbent on all to assist that speck of hope in a world that will almost certainly fall on its face surrounding it.
That being said, the argument that the ummah is not ready for shariah, or victory, or that people should not set those lofty goals is also flawed… the sahaba were far from experienced in governance and technology and instead were so victorious because of their absolute lack of fear in the face of the global system of kufr in the world at that time…. Within 30 years after the Prophet’s death (saws) they were in charge of the remnants of two empires and were phenomenal political and economic actors. Any precursory notice of their attitude and approach shows that the pragmatists from amongst this ummah, lack competely their unrelenting belief in Allah and reliance in Him (swt) in a worldly sense…. It is hard to read about their lives and their sacrifices and then have someone claiming salafiyya to come up and insinuate that it is best to stay silent and mute with regard to the external society while focusing on self…. This is as if to suggest that improving the society or working on yourself are mutually exclusive choices…. They are not. And so the question is how can you find yourself by doing for others, how can you embody the message of Islam as an individual? The answer, it seems to me, is in acting on the environment in which you live as best you can, and remaining inquisitive and open as you do so… you can only act on the environment if you understand how it works and so I hope that my response leads you down paths through which you can continue to do so.
Ultimately, understanding the world with the intention of rescuing oppressed from the oppressor and creating a better world is one of the ultimate intentions you can hold and if that is the true intention then even secular knowledge leads to the divine and is rewarded by Allah (swt). Your best friends will be books and people will fail to understand you, but perhaps someday the ideals you strive for will become a reality and you will have an opportunity to feed the poor, educate the society, and develop the institutions of an Islamic state… if not then may the One who Created you give you eternity in Paradise, my what a reward even a day there will be….
If you want to contact me for some books to read please feel free. I will talk with you in my spare time. We will try to start a regular series of classes with curriculums and all… there is a poll I hope you voted on for the class that interests you the most. I expect them to start at the end of January. For my part until then, I am very busy teaching right now and must try to find a way to make time. As well, I cannot do street dawa right now as it is not possible. Please feel free to follow up…. I appreciate your question and made it public so as to try to stimulate the conversation of all that read this site…. JazakAllahu Khairan!
Brother Younus
